Its my limited understanding that in a bear market you have fast rallies and slow retracements, but in a bull market you have slow rallies and fast retracements.

So as soon as we begin to string together a few up days with moderate gains, even if they are followed by a massive sell off soon after, its probably starting to come around and generally head upwards. What we are seeing at the moment are fast rallies with stupidly high gains in a single day, which collapses into a slow 2-5 day decline.

I'm no expert though, and I don't have any money to put where my mouth is

i have been buying and selling over the last week and and a bit taking mild profits with me on small investments, too much of a pussy to find out tomorrow if this rally was going to stick :P no doubt ill buy back in though if it happens to fall a fair bit tomorrorw or the next few days, tactic seems to be working for me at the moment.

Exactly, the best rallies are in the bear markets. How many 800+ point up days did we see in the last 5 years?

And as for knowing when a recession is going to end, of course no-one knows exactly. Just need to do the work, read all the quarterlies, next quarter earnings guidances, etc. If you spent 1 hour researching a company you'd probably have done more work that 90% of investors.

__________________
EVO IX- sold
M3

Just remember, you want to be making fairly decent gains, otherwise the govt will chew up what you have made in capital gains tax.

__________________


FOR SALE - [MY REXTC] - Custom Polycarb Plates - PM Me

Recession has not yet begun.

"an economy is in recession if it experiences two consecutive quarters of negative growth".

Check out:

Still positive GDP to June quarter. We won't technically be in recession until sometime next year (could be January assuming negative growth in Sept and Dec quarters) so don't be expecting a complete stockmarket turn-around now. I agree with BAS and Lorry - still in bear market, just seeing a rally. Expect it to drop further. Good for trading, not for long term holding at the moment. I'd be happy with paying the tax man 50% as long as I'm making a profit. Better than holding out for a year only to make a loss....

__________________
Back at work.

yeah i know, but im still at a loss overall atm, so wont be paying squat.

Have been thinkin about buying blue chip shares now. Is this a good idea?

__________________
Huge range of extinguisher brackets for cars!

http://kap.industries/

Absolutely - world economy is fucked, economic growth is slowing, unemployment rising, investment & lending dropping - just perfect for companies to make bazillions of dollars in profits...

Do it!

__________________
MY09 Evo X - 1.6bar@3500rpm - got lag?
Barbagallo - 56.03 (S); 1:08.09 (L)
Collie - 50.77
Possibly the most under-driven Evo X in the world??

blue chips are always a good idea to buy, theyre a long term hold and dont have the volatility of the spec's. you should of loaded up a couple days ago though really...thats what all my clients did and theyre all v happy

Just ask the holders who bought RIO at $167 and BHP at $50 if they are happy with the volatility of their blue chip stocks (-38%, -46% against 12 month lows)

Russ, no-one knows what is going to happen at the moment. Therefore make up your own mind, or ask a professional (not a car forum!). It is your money. (I don't think too many professionals know either at the moment - so I do what I am comfortable with).

Sure, 'blue chip' stocks have been heading up since mid last week, but they may go lower if the financial crisis fallout is bigger than expected. Some expect lows to be as late as mid next year.

Compared to past highs, its a great time to buy (cheap). But, I'd keep an eye on them, and once they get a bit higher, I'd put stop-losses on them just in case it tanks again. Market falls quickly when it does due to margin calls.

Good time to trade though...

__________________
Back at work.